2020 New Brunswick general election

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2020 New Brunswick general election
← 2018 September 14, 2020 Next →
49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
25 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
  175x175px 175x175px 175x175px
Leader Blaine Higgs Kevin Vickers David Coon
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal Green
Leader since October 22, 2016 April 24, 2019 September 22, 2012
Leader's seat Quispamsis Ran in Miramichi (lost) Fredericton South
Last election 22 seats, 31.89% 21 seats, 37.80% 3 seats, 11.88%
Seats before 20 20 3
Seats won 27 17 3
Seat change Increase7 Decrease3 Steady
  Fourth party Fifth party
  175x175px
NDP
Leader Kris Austin Mackenzie Thomason
Party People's Alliance New Democratic
Leader since June 5, 2010 February 25, 2019
Leader's seat Fredericton-Grand Lake Ran in Fredericton North (lost)
Last election 3 seats, 12.58% 0 seats, 5.00%
Seats before 3 0
Seats won 2 0
Seat change Decrease1 Steady
Premier before election

Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative

 Premier after election

Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative

The 2020 New Brunswick general election was held on September 14, 2020 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick. The Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick, led by Blaine Higgs, won a majority government.

The writs of election were issued by Lieutenant Governor Brenda Murphy on August 17, 2020, after a request was made by Premier Blaine Higgs to dissolve the legislature.

The election was scheduled to take place on October 17, 2022, as determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Legislative Assembly Act, which requires a general election to be held every four years on the third Monday in October.[1] However, Premier Higgs called a snap election after negotiations failed with the other parties that would have avoided an election until the fixed date in 2022 or the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.[2]

At 8:55 p.m. ADT the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation called the election as a Progressive Conservative majority government.[3]

Background

Aftermath of the 2018 election

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Further information: 2018 New Brunswick general election § Aftermath

The 2018 provincial election resulted in no party winning a majority of seats in the legislature for the first time since the 1920 provincial election. On election night, Blaine Higgs claimed victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, saying his team had received a mandate from New Brunswickers; however, Liberal Party leader and incumbent premier Brian Gallant stated his intention to remain in office with a minority government by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis.[4] Over the following days, Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau met with both leaders and gave permission to Gallant to continue in office and attempt to seek the confidence of the Legislative Assembly;[5] while Higgs was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the Assembly, Higgs would be called on to form government.[6]

After the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support.[7][8] Gallant pursued a partnership with the Green Party and ruled out any arrangement with the Progressive Conservative Party or People's Alliance because Gallant did not believe that they shared the Liberal Party’s “values”.[9] Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement would be ideal for stability.[10] On September 28, 2018, Austin agreed to support a Progressive Conservative minority government on a "bill-by-bill basis" for eighteen months, though no formal agreement was made.[11]

On November 2, 2018, the Progressive Conservatives introduced a motion of no confidence in the Legislative Assembly, resulting in a 25-23 vote against the Liberals. Subsequently, Gallant resigned as Premier and recommended to the Lieutenant Governor that Higgs be given the opportunity to form government.[12] Higgs' minority government was sworn into office on November 9, 2018.[13]

On November 15, 2018, Gallant announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party.[14] He was succeeded by Kevin Vickers on April 24, 2019.[15]

Speculation of an early election

The PC minority government's seat total dropped to 20 after the death of MLA Greg Thompson on September 10, 2019 and the resignation of Deputy Premier Robert Gauvin on February 14, 2020.[16] Gauvin's resignation came after the PC government announced health reforms, including the nightly closure of six hospital emergency rooms across the province as a cost reduction measure.[16] Despite the Progressive Conservatives quickly backtracking on their proposals, the Liberals and the Greens said that they would not support the government at the next confidence vote, while the People's Alliance specifically did not rule out a vote of non-confidence.[16][17][18] The next confidence vote was scheduled for March 20, 2020 to approve the PC government's proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year;[19] however, by that time, the People's Alliance decided to continue supporting the government and Green MLAs were allowed to vote freely on the budget.[19] Furthermore, after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, all parties decided to co-operate with each other—thus, avoiding a spring election.[20]

However, by the summer, COVID-19 cases had stayed low for several weeks and Premier Blaine Higgs began to hint at the possibility of a fall election, arguing that stability was required for the next phase of the pandemic and economic recovery.[21] The Progressive Conservatives carried out candidate riding nominations on August 8, 2020, continuing speculation of when an election might be called.[22] On the following Monday, Higgs made an offer to the opposition parties to avoid an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic;[21] however, negotiations ultimately failed and a snap election was called on August 17, 2020.[2]

Summary of seat changes

Changes in seats held (2018 - 2020)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Saint Croix 10 September 2019 Greg Thompson █ PC Death
Shediac Bay-Dieppe 7 October 2019 Brian Gallant █ Liberal Resignation
Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou 14 February 2020 Robert Gauvin █ PC Left the party █ Independent

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Results

Results are not final. Elected are based off the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation analysis.

e • d Summary of the 2020 Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick election
Political party Party leader MLAs Votes
Candidates 2018 Dissol. 2020 ± # % ± (pp) % where
running
Progressive Conservative[lower-alpha 1] Blaine Higgs 49 22 20 27 136,514 39.27
Liberal[lower-alpha 1] Kevin Vickers 49 21 20 17 120,061 34.53
Green David Coon 47 3 3 3 52,452 15.09
People's Alliance[lower-alpha 1] Kris Austin 36 3 3 2 32,224 9.27
New Democratic Mackenzie Thomason (interim) 33 – – 0 5,648 1.62
  KISS Gerald Bourque 4 – – 0 124 0.04
  Independent[lower-alpha 2] 9 – 1 0 639 0.18
  Vacant 2
Ballots rejected
Total 227 49 49 49 – 100.00%
Eligible voters and turnout

Campaign

Election call and initial reaction

At his election announcement, Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs blamed the Liberals for the failure of negotiations that would have avoided an election until 2022 or the end of the pandemic.[23] In response, Liberal leader Kevin Vickers and Green Party leader David Coon criticized Higgs for calling an election during a pandemic.[23] Vickers insisted that the negotiations would have given unlimited power to Higgs and the PCs, and an election should have been held after the end of the pandemic.[23] Meanwhile, People's Alliance leader Kris Austin asked New Brunswickers to vote for his party to ensure accountability of the next government by electing another minority legislature.[2][23]

Impact of COVID-19

From the outset of the campaign, Higgs was asked about the potential impact of COVID-19 on the election.[2] Higgs initially caused confusion when he said that he would be able to suspend the election, if necessary,[2] even though, New Brunswick's Chief Electoral Officer Kim Poffenroth said that an election could not be stopped after it has been called.[2] Additionally, Higgs suggested that he could turn to the COVID-19 emergency order declared by the province under the Emergency Measures Act (EMA), despite the fact that election timelines are exempt from the EMA.[2] However, Higgs remained firm that he did not intend to suspend the election.[2] Higgs also shared that, because of COVID-19, PC candidates were instructed to avoid door-to-door campaigning and mailbox flyers during the election.[2][23]

Candidate controversies

Roland Michaud, PC candidate in Victoria-La Vallée, was ordered to withdraw from the election by Blaine Higgs after a transphobic meme posted on Michaud's Facebook page became public;[24] Michaud chose to remain and run as an independent.[25] Michaud will still be listed as a PC on the ballot because the papers have already been printed.

John Wayne Gardner, Liberal candidate in Saint Croix, was ousted by party leader Kevin Vickers after an anti-LGBTQ2I tweet from 2017 came to light; Gardner announced later the same day that he would continue to run as an independent.[26] As with Michaud, Gardner will remain on the ballot with his original affiliation.

Louis Bérubé, PC candidate in Restigouche West, was allowed to remain as party candidate after transphobic social media comments mentioned in a 2016 Acadie Nouvelle story[27] resurfaced.[28] The party cited Bérubé's earlier apologies for his comments and his successful vetting before running for the Green Party in the 2019 election as reasons for his retention.

Heathere Collins, PANB candidate in Memramcook-Tantramar, was dropped by party leader Kris Austin after 2019 anti-Muslim Tweets came to light.[29] The candidate, whose Elections NB registration disagrees with her Twitter account about how to spell her first name, remained in the election.

Opinion polls

Voting Intentions in New Brunswick since the 2018 Election

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Polling Firm Last Day of Polling Link PC Liberal PA Green NDP
Forum Research Inc. September 13, 2020 HTML 37 30 8 21 4
Mainstreet Research September 12, 2020 HTML 37 30 7 21 4
EKOS September 12, 2020 HTML 32 32 10 18 4
Oraclepoll Research September 3, 2020 PDF 42 33 2 18 6
MQO Research August 30, 2020 HTML 43 27 5 17 6
Mainstreet Research August 27, 2020 PDF 38 32 7 19 4
Leger/Acadie Nouvelle August 26, 2020 PDF 40 32 7 13 6
Narrative Research August 23, 2020 HTML 44 33 2 14 7
Angus Reid May 24, 2020 HTML 39 26 13 17 4
Narrative Research May 20, 2020 HTML 48 30 3 15 5
Innovative Research Group May 7, 2020 PDF 33 37 6 13 10
Narrative Research March 12, 2020 HTML 39 28 4 20 8
MQO Research February 27, 2020 PDF 37 31 4 21 4
Narrative Research November 22, 2019 HTML 37 31 3 21 7
Narrative Research August 23, 2019 PDF 36 29 8 18 6
Narrative Research June 13, 2019 HTML 42 25 6 18 8
MQO Research May 6, 2019 PDF 40 30 5 20 3
24 April 2019 Kevin Vickers becomes leader of the Liberal Party
Corporate Research Associates February 19, 2019 PDF 42 29 9 14 6
MQO Research February 10, 2019 PDF 46 32 8 11 3
Mainstreet Research January 15, 2019 HTML 40.2 27.3 12.4 15 4.5
Corporate Research Associates November 24, 2018 PDF 30 35 12 17 6
9 November 2018 Blaine Higgs is sworn in as Premier of New Brunswick leading a PC minority government, following the resignation of Brian Gallant and his Liberal minority government.
MQO Research November 5, 2018 PDF 36 29 11 21 3
2 November 2018 Premier Brian Gallant's Liberal minority government loses a non-confidence vote
Mainstreet Research November 2, 2018 HTML 33.7 33.7 12.7 15.7 3
Election 2018 September 24, 2018 HTML 31.89 37.80 12.58 11.88 5.01

Candidates

Legend

  • bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
  • † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
  • # denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick[30]

Northern

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Progressive Conservatives   Liberal   Green   PANB   NDP Other
Restigouche West Louis Bérubé Gilles LePage Charles Thériault Travis Pollock (KISS) Gilles LePage
Campbellton-Dalhousie Charles D. Stewart Guy H. Arseneault Marie-Christine Allard Guy Arseneault
Restigouche-Chaleur Louis Robichaud Daniel Guitard Marie Larivière Daniel Guitard
Bathurst West-Beresford Ann Bard-Lavigne René Legacy Pierre Duguay-Boudreau Brian Kenny†[31]
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore Amanda Keast Denis Landry Robert Kryzsko Denis Landry
Caraquet Kevin J. Haché Isabelle Thériault Marie-Christine Haché Isabelle Thériault
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou Jean-Gérard Chiasson Eric Mallet Marie Leclerc Robert Gauvin#
Tracadie-Sheila Diane Carey Keith Chiasson Chris LeBlanc Keith Chiasson

Miramichi

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Progressive Conservatives   Liberal   Green   PANB   NDP Other
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Robert Trevors Lisa Harris Curtis Bartibogue Thomas L'Huillier Douglas Mullin Lisa Harris
Miramichi Charles Barry Kevin Vickers Joshua Shaddick Michelle Conroy Eileen Clancy Teslenko Tristan Sutherland (Ind.) Michelle Conroy
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin Jake Stewart Josh McCormack Art O'Donnell Glenna Hanley Jake Stewart

Southeastern

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Progressive Conservatives   Liberal   Green   PANB   NDP Other
Kent North Stephen Robertson Bertrand LeBlanc Kevin Arseneau Roger Richard (Ind.) Kevin Arseneau
Kent South Raymond (Bou) Duplessis Benoit Bourque Eva P. Rehak Lisa Godin Sue Shedd Benoît Bourque
Shediac Bay-Dieppe Mathieu Gérald Caissie Robert Gauvin Phillip Coombes Delphine Daigle Vacant
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé Marie-Paule Martin Jacques LeBlanc Gilles Cormier Jacques LeBlanc
Memramcook-Tantramar Carole Duguay Maxime Bourgeois Megan Mitton Heathere Collins[lower-alpha 3] Jefferson George Wright (Ind.) Megan Mitton
Dieppe Patricia Arsenault Roger Melanson Mélyssa Boudreau Pamela Boudreau Roger Melanson
Moncton East Daniel Allain Monique LeBlanc Phylomène Zangio Michel Norman Guitare Christopher Wanamaker Monique LeBlanc
Moncton Centre Jean Poirier Rob McKee Carole Chan Aaron Richter James Caldwell Rob McKee
Moncton South Greg Turner Tyson Milner Josephine Watson Marilyn Crossman-Riel Rebecca Rogers Cathy Rogers†[32]
Moncton Northwest Ernie Steeves Mark Black Laura Sanderson Shawn Soucoup Cyprien Okana Ernie Steeves
Moncton Southwest Sherry Wilson René Ephestion Claire Kelly Susan Matthews Juliana McIntosh Sherry Wilson
Riverview R. Bruce Fitch Heath Johnson Rachel Pletz Troy Berteit John Nuttall R. Bruce Fitch
Albert Mike Holland Kelley Nagle Jenny O'Neill Sharon Buchanan James Wilson (Ind.) Mike Holland
Gagetown-Petitcodiac Ross Wetmore John (Jake) Urquhart Marilyn Merritt-Gray Craig Dykeman Ryan Jewkes Ross Wetmore

Southern

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Progressive Conservatives   Liberal   Green   PANB   NDP Other
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins Tammy Scott-Wallace Cully Robinson Tim Thompson Jim Bedford Jonas Lanz Bruce Northrup†[33]
Hampton Gary E. Crossman Carley Parish John Carl Sabine Sharon Bradley-Munn Alex White Gary Crossman
Quispamsis Blaine M. Higgs Robert Hunt Addison Fach Sara Hall Caitlin Grogan Blaine Higgs
Rothesay Hugh J. (Ted) Flemming Jason Hickey Ann McAllister Mike Griffin Neville (NB) Barnett (Ind.)
Liz Kramer (Ind.)		 Ted Flemming
Saint John East Glen Savoie Phil Comeau Gerald Irish Patrick Kemp Josh Floyd Glen Savoie
Portland-Simonds Trevor A. Holder Tim Jones Stefan Warner Darella (Lindsay) Jackson Erik Heinze-Milne Trevor Holder
Saint John Harbour Arlene Dunn Alice (Ms McKim) McKim Brent Harris Tony Gunn Courtney Pyrke Mike (Dok) Cyr (Ind.)
Arty Watson (Ind.)		 Gerry Lowe†[34]
Saint John Lancaster K. Dorothy Shephard Sharon Teare Joanna Killen Paul Seelye Don Durant Dorothy Shephard
Kings Centre Bill Oliver Paul Adams Bruce Dryer William Edgett Margaret Anderson Kilfoil Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West Andrea Anderson-Mason Tony Mann Lois P. Mitchell Vincent P. Edgett Sharon R. Greenlaw Andrea Anderson-Mason
Saint Croix Kathy Bockus John Wayne Gardner[lower-alpha 3] Kim Reeder Rod Cumberland Brad McKinney Vacant

Capital Region

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Progressive Conservatives   Liberal   Green   PANB   NDP Other
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton Mary E. Wilson Steven Burns Gail Costello Craig Rector Natasha M. Akhtar Mary E. Wilson
Fredericton-Grand Lake Roy Wiggins Eldon Hunter Ken Washburn Kris Austin Greg Cook Grenville Woollacott (KISS) Kris Austin
New Maryland-Sunbury Jeff Carr Chris Pelkey Jen Smith Morris Shannon Chris Thompson Jeff Carr
Fredericton South Brian MacKinnon Nicole Picot David Coon Wendell Betts Geoffrey Noseworthy David Coon
Fredericton North Jill Green Stephen Horsman Luke Randall Allen Price Mackenzie Thomason Stephen Horsman
Fredericton-York Ryan Cullins Randy McKeen Melissa Fraser Rick DeSaulniers Steven J. LaForest Gerald Bourque (KISS) Rick DeSaulniers
Fredericton West-Hanwell Dominic Cardy Chris Duffie Susan Jonah Mel Keeling Armand Cormier Dominic Cardy
Carleton-York Richard Ames Robert Kitchen Louise Comeau Gary Lemmon Jarrett Oldenburg Carl Urquhart†[35]

Upper River Valley

Electoral district Candidates   Incumbent
  Progressive Conservatives   Liberal   Green   PANB   NDP Other
Carleton Bill Hogan Theresa Blackburn Greg Crouse Graham Gill Shawn Oldenburg Andy Walton (KISS) Stewart Fairgrieve†[36]
Carleton-Victoria Margaret Johnson Andrew Harvey Rowan Patrick Miller Terry Leigh Sisson Meriet Gray Miller Andrew Harvey
Victoria-La Vallée Roland Michaud[lower-alpha 3] Chuck Chiasson Nathanaël Denis Lavoie André Jobin Danny Zolondek (Ind.) Chuck Chiasson
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre Joanne Bérubé Gagné Jean-Claude (JC) D'Amours Marco Morency Jean-Claude (JC) D'Amours
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston Marie-Eve Castonguay Francine Landry Marie-Soleil Lussier Francine Landry

Notes

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References

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External links

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  3. ↑ https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/new-brunswick/2020/results/
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  12. ↑ Brian Gallant's minority government defeated after losing confidence vote
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Brian Gallant resigns as N.B. Liberal leader after election loss
  15. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  26. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The article also appears on page 11 of the 20 May print edition.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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