2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary
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114 Democratic National Convention delegates (91 pledged, 23 unpledged) The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote |
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Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
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The 2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary took place in Massachusetts, United States, on March 3, 2020, as one of 14 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Massachusetts primary was a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 114 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 91 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
Joe Biden won the state, whilst Bernie Sanders finished second and Elizabeth Warren finished third in her home state. Biden carried most of the state's counties and townships, a remarkable exception was Suffolk county, home of the Boston metro area, where Sanders got his worst result in 2016, but manage to carry it in this occasion. Biden's victory was seen by many observers as a surprise, as both Sanders and Warren were favored in pre-election polls and forecasts over the former Vice President.
Acording to exit polls, Biden overwhelmingly won voters over 50 followed by Warren while Sanders did the same with voters under 40 with Biden finishing behind Warren, the 40 to 49 years old voters were splitted between Biden with 32% to Sanders with 31% Biden also won the white voters by 8 points over Sanders and by 7 points between African Americans, while Sanders won the Hispanic/Latino vote over Biden 13 points, and also won the LGBTQ+ voters over Warren and Biden by 12 and 23 points respectively.[1]
Biden also carried 7 of the state's 9 congressional districts the 1st, 3rd, 4th (where Biden got his widest margin of victory), 5th, 6th, 8th, and the 9th, while Sanders carried the remaining ones the 2nd and the 7th[2][3], the latest being Sanders's best performance as well as the only one where Warren finished second, and Biden third in contrast to the pre-election prediction that this would be the district where Biden would do better and Sanders would do worse[4]
Procedure
Massachusetts was one of 14 states holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday".[5]
Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. in much of the state, with some precincts opening starting at 5:45 a.m. In the semi-closed primary, candidates must meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 24 unpledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention will be allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 91 pledged delegates, between 6 and 8 are allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 12 are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 20 at-large pledged delegates (although there are 114 delegates as stated in the approved MA 2020 Delegate Selection Plan[6]). Bonus delegates will be allocated as Massachusetts shares a primary date with numerous other states on Super Tuesday; these numbers do not yet account for these delegates.[7]
After congressional district caucuses on Saturday, April 25, 2020 during which national convention district delegates will be selected, the state convention will subsequently be held on Saturday, May 16, 2020 to vote on the 20 pledged at-large and 12 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 91 pledged delegates Massachusetts sends to the national convention will be joined by 23 unpledged PLEO delegates (9 members of the Democratic National Committee; 11 members of Congress, including both Senators, notably Elizabeth Warren, and 9 U.S. Representatives, notably Seth Moulton; and former DNC chairs Steven Grossman, Debra DeLee, and Paul G. Kirk).[7]
Candidates
The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth released the following list of candidates on the ballot:[8]
Running
Withdrawn
Polling
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated |
Dates polled |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Joe Biden |
Michael Bloomberg |
Tulsi Gabbard |
Others/ Undecided[lower-alpha 1] |
|
270 to Win | March 3, 2020 | Until March 3, 2020 | 22.4% | 21.0% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 1.8% | 26.2% | |
FiveThirtyEight | March 3, 2020 | until March 3, 2020 [lower-alpha 2] | 24.4% | 21.0% | 18.1% | 14.5% | 0.4% | 21.6% | |
Average | 23.4% | 21.0% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 1.1% | 23.9% | |||
Massachusetts primary results (March 3, 2020) | 26.6% | 21.4% | 33.4% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 6.1% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Michael Bloomberg |
Cory Booker |
Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
Amy Klobuchar |
Beto O'Rourke |
Deval Patrick |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Other | Undecided | |
Klobuchar withdraws from the race; endorses Biden | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 917 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 17% | 18% | – | 11% | – | 5% | – | – | 27% | 15% | 8%[lower-alpha 4] | – | |
Buttigieg withdraws from the race; endorses Biden | ||||||||||||||||
Data for Progress | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 301 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 26% | 15% | – | 2% | – | 1% | – | – | 26% | 28% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | – | |
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV | Feb 26–29, 2020 | 500 (LV) | - | 11.0% | 13.0% | – | 12.4% | – | 5.0% | – | – | 24.2% | 22.2% | 3.6%[lower-alpha 6] | 8.6% | |
WBUR/MassINC | Feb 23-26, 2020 | 426 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 9% | 13% | - | 14% | - | 6% | - | - | 25% | 17% | 9%[lower-alpha 7] | 8% | |
UMass Amherst | Feb 18-24, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 12% | 9% | - | 14% | - | 7% | - | - | 25% | 23% | 8%[lower-alpha 8] | 3% | |
Falchuk & DiNatale | Feb 16-18, 2020 | 453 (LV) | – | 13% | 13% | – | 13% | – | 14% | – | – | 17% | 16% | 5%[lower-alpha 9] | 8% | |
University of Massachusetts Lowell | Feb 12-19, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 14% | 12% | – | 15% | – | 9% | – | – | 21% | 20% | 6%[lower-alpha 10] | 4% | |
Patrick withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Falchuk & DiNatale | Jan 27-30, 2020 | 334 (LV) | – | 16% | 8% | – | 6% | – | 7% | – | 3% | 12% | 23% | 7%[lower-alpha 11] | – | |
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Patrick announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
WBUR | Oct 16–20, 2019 | 456 | ± 4.6% | 18% | – | 0% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | – | 13% | 33% | 7%[lower-alpha 12] | 15% | |
Suffolk University | Sep 3–5, 2019 | 500 | - | 26% | – | 1% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 1% | – | 8% | 24% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] | 25% | |
Moulton withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Suffolk University | Jun 5–9, 2019 | 370 | ± 5.1% | 22% | – | 1% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 6% | 10% | 5%[lower-alpha 14] | 42% | |
Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Moulton announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College | Apr 4–7, 2019 | 371 | ± 5.0% | 23% | – | 2% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 8% | – | 26% | 14% | 8%[lower-alpha 15] | – | |
O'Rourke announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Sanders announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Klobuchar announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Warren announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Booker announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Harris announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
YouGov/UMass Amherst | Nov 7–14, 2018 | 655 | – | 19% | – | 3% | – | 6% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 14% | 11% | 1%[lower-alpha 16] | 27% |
Hypothetical polling
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Results
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 473,511 | 33.4 | 37 |
Bernie Sanders | 376,608 | 26.6 | 29 |
Elizabeth Warren | 303,770 | 21.4 | 25 |
Michael Bloomberg | 166,086 | 11.7 | |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 38,358 | 2.7 | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) | 17,288 | 1.2 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 10,542 | 0.7 | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) | 7,014 | 0.5 | |
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 6,918 | 0.5 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 2,713 | 0.2 | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 1,284 | 0.1 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn) | 718 | 0.1 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 616 | 0.0 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 426 | 0.0 | |
Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 304 | 0.0 | |
No Preference | 5,341 | 0.4 | |
Blank ballots | 4,061 | 0.3 | |
Total Write-ins | 1,940 | 0.1 | |
Total | 1,417,498 | 91 |
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
Notes
- Polling Notes
- ↑ Calculated by subtracting polled candidates from 100%
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Steyer with 4%; Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 3%
- ↑ Gabbard with 2%
- ↑ Steyer with 2.4%; Gabbard with 0.8%; refused with 0.4%
- ↑ Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 2%; Would not vote with 2%
- ↑ Gabbard with 4%; Steyer with 3%
- ↑ Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%
- ↑ Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- ↑ Steyer with 4%; Yang with 3%; Booker with 0%
- ↑ Gabbard with 2%; Delaney, Steyer and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; others with 2%; would not vote with 2%
- ↑ Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock and Yang with 1%; de Blasio, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; refused with 1%
- ↑ Gabbard, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%
- ↑ Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, and Yang with 1%; Gillibrand and Inslee with 0%; others with 5%
- ↑ Moulton with 1%
References
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