Malthusian growth model

A Malthusian Growth Model, sometimes called a simple exponential growth model, is essentially exponential growth based on a constant rate. The model is named after Thomas Robert Malthus, who wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), one of the earliest and most influential books on population.

Malthusian models have the following form:

$P(t) = P_0e^{rt} \,$

where

• P₀ = P(0) is the initial population size,
• r = the population growth rate, sometimes called Malthusian parameter,
• t = time.

This model is often referred to as the exponential law. It is widely regarded in the field of population ecology as the first principle of population dynamics, with Malthus as the founder. The exponential law is therefore also sometimes referred to as the Malthusian Law.

It is generally acknowledged that populations can not grow indefinitely. Joel E. Cohen has stated that the simplicity of the model makes it useful for short-term predictions, but not of much use for predictions beyond 10 or 20 years.

The simplest way to limit Malthusian growth model is by extending it to a logistic function. Pierre Francois Verhulst first published his logistic growth function in 1838 after he had read Malthus' essay.

See also

• Albert Allen Bartlett – a leading proponent of the Malthusian Growth Model
• Exogenous growth model – related growth model from economics
• Exponential growth
• Growth theory – related ideas from economics
• Human overpopulation
• Irruptive growth – an extension of the Malthusian model accounting for population explosions and crashes
• Logistic function
• Malthusian catastrophe
• Mathematical models
• Neo-malthusianism
• Population
• Population ecology
• Scientific laws named after people – strictly speaking, no scientific law has been named after Malthus
• Scientific phenomena named after people – being mathematical, and relating to population dynamics, the Malthusian growth model qualifies

External links

• Malthusian Growth Model from Steve McKelvey, Department of Mathematics, Saint Olaf College, Northfield, Minnesota
• Logistic Model from Steve McKelvey, Department of Mathematics, Saint Olaf College, Northfield, Minnesota
• Laws Of Population Ecology Dr. Paul D. Haemig
• On principles, laws and theory of population ecology Professor of Entomology, Alan Berryman, Washington State University
• Mathematical Growth Models
• e the EXPONENTIAL – the Magic Number of GROWTH – Keith Tognetti, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia
• Introduction to Social Macrodynamics Professor Andrey Korotayev
• Interesting Facts about Population Growth Mathematical Models from Jacobo Bulaevsky, Arcytech.
• A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia.