Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency

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Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2021 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

Alberta

Calgary Skyview

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 20, 2021 PDF 37.6 35.4 12.8 2.6 1.3 1.1 9.2 ±5.6 pp 303 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 28.3 52.5 14.9 1.6 1.2 1.5 N/A ±0.0 pp 50,552 Election

Edmonton Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 28, 2021 PDF 40 26 22 2 1 3 6 ±5.6 pp 303 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 33.0 41.5 20.6 2.6 1.5 0.8 N/A ±0.0 pp 53,092 Election

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 9, 2021 PDF 37 35.4 14.4 1.4 6.9 1.6 3.3 ±5 pp 299 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 33.6 50.3 12.1 1.8 1.8 0.4 N/A ±0.0 pp 53,177 Election

British Columbia

Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 7, 2021 PDF 28.1 29.6 26 5.2 2.3 0.9 7.9 ±5 pp 379 IVR
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 32.8 22.7 13.2 N/A N/A 6.2 25.1 ±4.1 pp 558 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 35.5 19.5 32.3 9.6 2.2 1 N/A ±0.0 pp 50,525 Election

Vancouver Granville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 15, 2021 PDF 33 25 15 7 3 2 15 ±5.9 pp 280 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 26.6 21.9 13.1 5.1 0.8 32.6 N/A ±0.0 pp 53,296 Election

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 5, 2021 PDF 25.1 42.3 15.1 6.2 5.1 0.7 5.4 ±3.8 pp 662 IVR
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 23.1 27.5 19.4 11.9 N/A 4 14.1 ±3.9 pp 624 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 34.9 26.7 13.9 22.4 1.6 0.5 N/A ±0.0 pp 64,980 Election

Manitoba

Winnipeg South

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 8, 2021 PDF 43.4 28.1 16.3 2 3.4 0 6.9 ±5 pp 304 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 42.1 38.7 13.9 4.3 0.9 N/A N/A ±0.0 pp 47,889 Election

Newfoundland and Labrador

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 9, 2021 PDF 43.2 30.5 10.5 0.6 3.4 1 10.9 ±5 pp 298 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML Template:Party shading/Liberal (Canada)|45.7 39.5 12.0 2.9 N/A N/A N/A ±0.0 pp 32,179 Election

St. John’s East

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 7, 2021 PDF 45.3 15.2 26.7 1.6 2.2 0 9 ±5.1 pp 363 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 33.2 18.1 46.9 1.8 N/A N/A N/A ±0.0 pp 42,940 Election

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton—Canso

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 19, 2021 PDF 39.3 37.6 8.2 1.9 3.6 2.3 7.1 ±5 pp 301 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 38.9 34.5 14.8 7.7 2.2 1.9 N/A ±0.0 pp 42,940 Election

Ontario

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 23, 2021 HTML 47 34 12 2 4 2 N/A ±5 pp 309 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 42.4 44.4 7.2 4.1 1.0 1.0 N/A ±0.0 pp 53,109 Election

Kanata—Carleton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 8, 2021 PDF 36.3 32.8 18.5 4.5 1.5 0.2 6.2 ±5 pp 297 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 43 36.5 12.5 6.6 1.4 N/A N/A ±0.0 pp 66,772 Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 24, 2021 PDF 27.8 23.4 23.6 11.9 1.2 6.7 5.5 ±5.9 pp 280 IVR
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 25.8 17.9 11.1 14.3 N/A 4 26.8 ±4 pp 601 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 36.7 23.8 11.3 26 1.9 0.4 N/A ±0.0 pp 55,374 Election

Parkdale—High Park

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 34.5 14.3 16.6 8.8 N/A 2.9 23 ±4 pp 600 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 47.4 13.2 31.5 6.4 1.1 1.1 N/A ±0.0 pp 60,887 Election

Peterborough—Kawartha

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research September 1, 2021 PDF 25.8 37.5 17.9 8.6 3.4 0.9 5.9 ±5.7 pp 291 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 39.3 34.9 17.1 7.1 1.3 0.5 N/A ±0.0 pp 69,801 Election

Spadina—Fort York

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 15, 2021 PDF 47.5 18.9 12 3.7 3.9 3.9 10.1 ±4.1 pp 574 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 55.8 17.6 20.1 5.2 1.1 1.1 N/A ±0.0 pp 60,887 Election

Toronto Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 39.9 8.6 9.5 15.5 N/A 2.3 24.3 ±4.1 pp 574 IVR
2020 By-election October 26, 2020 HTML 42 5.7 17 32.7 1.1 1.6 N/A ±0.0 pp 25,205 Election
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 57.4 12.1 22.3 7.1 N/A 1.2 N/A ±0.0 pp 54,512 Election

Prince Edward Island

Malpeque

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 5, 2021 HTML 36.5 25.3 7 12.1 N/A 0.2 19 ±5.9 pp 280 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 41.4 25.6 6.5 26.5 N/A 0.4 N/A ±0.0 pp 23,039 Election

Quebec

Abitibi—Témiscamingue

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
SOM March 29, 2021 HTML 25 9 5.5 20 N/A N/A 6 35 ±5.1 pp 501 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 25 15 10 45.5 4 1 0 N/A ±0.0 pp 50,155 Election

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 27, 2021 PDF 42.4 5.1 6.1 34.1 4.0 1.7 0.3 6.4 ±5.6 pp 311 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 34.2 6.3 8.5 38.5 6.1 1.3 0.4 N/A ±0.0 pp 59,844 Election

Pontiac

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 19, 2021 PDF 33 24 14 9 2 4 2 12 ±4.9 pp 398 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 48.9 16.8 10.5 16.1 6.1 1.3 0.4 N/A ±0.0 pp 62,508 Election

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research August 25, 2021 PDF 19 28.6 28.8 2.4 5.2 1.2 15.5 ±5.6 pp 305 IVR
2019 Election October 21, 2019 HTML 7.3 47.7 40.3 2.7 2.0 N/A N/A ±0.0 pp 38,985 Election

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

See also

References

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012
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