2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

Template:Elections in Virginia

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore.^[1] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote defeating former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie by 0.8%.^[2] Warner is running for a third term.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. Senator^[3]^[4]^[5]

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.^[6]^[7] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.^[8] The primary was on June 23.

Candidates

Nominee

Daniel Gade, college professor and U.S. Army veteran^[9]

Eliminated in primary

Alissa Baldwin, teacher^[10]
Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer^[11]

Failed to qualify

Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor^[12]
Omari Faulkner, business executive, former U.S. State Department official and U.S. Navy reservist^[13]^[14]
Roger Franklin^[15]
Victor Williams, attorney and activist^[16]

Withdrawn

Gary Adkins, financial executive^[17]
John Easley, Republican candidate for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2020^[18]^[19]
Scott Taylor, former U.S. Representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district^[20] (running for his former House seat)

Declined

Nick Freitas, state delegate and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for U.S. House)^[21]
Corey Stewart, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors^[22]^[23]

Endorsements

Daniel Gade

National Party Officials

Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee^[24]

U.S. Representatives

Randy Forbes, former (VA-04)^[25]
Elise Stefanik, (NY-21) ^[25]
Scott Rigell, former (Va-02)^[24]

State Senators

State Delegates

Terry Kilgore, (1)^[26]
Wendell Walker. (23)^[24]

Individuals

Don Bolduc, Brigadier General and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire^[24]
E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist^[24]

Results

File:Virginia Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg

Results by county:

Gade

Gade—>90%
Gade—80–90%
Gade—70–80%
Gade—60–70%
Gade—50–60%
Gade—40–50%

Republican primary results^[27]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Daniel Gade	208,754	67.40%
	Republican	Alissa Baldwin	56,165	18.13%
	Republican	Thomas Speciale	44,795	14.46%
Total votes			309,714	100.0%

Independents

Withdrawn

Mary Knapp^[28]^[29]^[30]
Aldous Mina, Peace Corps veteran^[28]^[30]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[31]	Safe D	August 17, 2020
Inside Elections^[32]	Safe D	September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[33]	Safe D	August 5, 2020
Daily Kos^[34]	Safe D	August 31, 2020
Politico^[35]	Likely D	September 9, 2020
RCP^[36]	Likely D	September 17, 2020
Niskanen^[37]	Safe D	September 15, 2020
DDHQ^[38]	Safe D	September 16, 2020
538^[39]	Safe D	September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Mark Warner (D)

Labor Unions

International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers^[40]

Organizations

Daniel Gade (R)

National party officials

Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee^[24]

U.S. Representatives

Randy Forbes, former (R- Virginia-04)^[25]
Elise Stefanik, (R-NY-21) ^[25]
Scott Rigell, former (R-Virginia-02)^[24]

State Senators

State Delegates

Terry Kilgore, (R-1)^[26]
Wendell Walker. (R-23)^[24]

Individuals

Don Bolduc, Brigadier General and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire^[24]
E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist^[24]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Mark Warner (D)	Daniel Gade (R)	Other/ Undecided
Christopher Newport University	September 9–21, 2020	796 (LV)	± 3.9%	52%	39%	9%^{[lower-alpha 2]}
Virginia Commonwealth University	August 28 – September 7, 2020	692 (LV)	± 6.22%	55%	38%	6^{[lower-alpha 3]}
Roanoke College	August 9–22, 2020	566 (LV)	± 4.1%	55%	34%	10%^{[lower-alpha 4]}

Hypothetical polling

with Mark Warner and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Mark Warner (D)	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Roanoke College	May 3–16, 2020	563 (LV)	± 4.1%	48%	31%	–	–

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Ipsos/University of Virginia	Feb 15–19, 2019	636 (A)	± 4.0%	43%	26%	2%	23%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020
Party		Candidate	%	±%
	Democratic	Mark Warner (incumbent)		{{{change}}}
	Republican	Daniel Gade		{{{change}}}
Total votes			100.00%

Notes

↑ ^1.0 ^1.1 ^1.2 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
↑ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
↑ "Don't know/refused" with 6%
↑ "Refused" with 0%

References

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External links

Official campaign websites

[key-53] 1.0 ^1.1 ^1.2 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[54] "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%

[55] "Don't know/refused" with 6%

[56] "Refused" with 0%

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2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Notes

References

External links

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