2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Ohio
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout %
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg 160x160px
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican


Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Absentee voters can request a ballot for the general election anytime after the first of the year.[2] Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

By the time that the primary elections were held in Ohio on April 28, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. For the Democratic Party, Vice President Joe Biden became the presidential nominee, having been the presumptive nominee since Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020.

Trump won the state in 2016 and Democrat Barack Obama won it in 2012. Polling points to a close result in Ohio in 2020.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[4] Lean R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[5] Tilt R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Lean R July 14, 2020
Politico[7] Lean R September 8, 2020
RCP[8] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[9] Tossup July 26, 2020
CNN[10] Tossup August 3, 2020
The Economist[11] Lean R September 2, 2020
CBS News[12] Tossup August 16, 2020
270towin[13] Tossup August 2, 2020
ABC News[14] Lean R July 31, 2020
NPR[15] Tossup August 3, 2020
NBC News[16] Tossup August 6, 2020
538[17] Tossup September 24, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270 to Win September 1–7, 2020 September 21, 2020 47.0% 47.5% 5.5% Trump +0.5
Real Clear Politics June 24, 2020 – September 2, 2020 September 9, 2020 46.7% 44.3% 9.0% Biden +2.4
FiveThirtyEight until September 15, 2020 September 21, 2020 46.5% 48.0% 5.5% Trump +1.5
Average 46.7% 46.6% 6.7% Biden +0.1

June 1, 2020 – October 31, 2020

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22, 2020 1,011 (LV) – 44% 45% 2% 0% – 7%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 1] Sep 11–15, 2020 556 (RV) ± 4.3% 48%[lower-alpha 3] 45% - - 5%[lower-alpha 4] 1%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 1,963 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 50%[lower-alpha 5] 45% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[1] Sep 1–2, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 47%[lower-alpha 6] 51% - - 3%[lower-alpha 7] –
Morning Consult Aug 21–30, 2020 1,811 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 50% 45% – – – –
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[lower-alpha 8] Aug 13–17, 2020 631 (RV) – 47% 47% – – 4%[lower-alpha 9] 2%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16, 2020 1,744 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 49% 45% – – – –
TargetSmart/Progress Ohio[lower-alpha 10] Jul 28 – Aug 3, 2020 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% Template:Party shading/Democrat|47% – – 8%[lower-alpha 11] –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 1,741 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 45% – – – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 21–24, 2020 1,211 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% – – 2%[lower-alpha 12] 7%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23, 2020 805 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% 4% 1% – 11%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/AGPAC[lower-alpha 13] Jul 15–16, 2020 750 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% – – 2%[lower-alpha 14] 2%
University of Akron Jun 24 – Jul 15, 2020 1,037 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% – – 6%[lower-alpha 15] 6%
Quinnipiac Jun 18–22, 2020 1,139 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 46% – – 4%[lower-alpha 16] 5%
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2, 2020 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 45% – – 6%[lower-alpha 17] 6%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 1,720 (LV) – 50% 42% – –
Emerson College May 8–10, 2020 725 (RV) ± 3.5% 51%[lower-alpha 18] 49% – –
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Apr 20–25, 2020 797 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 45% – 11%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 1,025 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 43% – 10%
Change Research Mar 21–23, 2020 510 (LV) – 52% 44% – 5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13, 2020 1,710 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% 1% 5%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 46% 48% – 6%
Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 19] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 53% – –
42% 48% – 10%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 53% – –
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 50% – –
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 44% 48% – 8%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Cory
Booker (D)		 Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 43% –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttegieg (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10%
Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 19] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50% –
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10%
Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 19] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50% –
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 1,025 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 41% – 12%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13, 2020 1,710 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 47% – 7%
Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 19] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 52% – –
45% 47% – 8%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 53% – –
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 45% – –
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 46% 47% – 7%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 6%
Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 19] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 51% –
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 46% 9%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52% –
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 45% –
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 49% 43% 9%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 805 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Sherrod
Brown (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 42% 48% 10%

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Pence (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 54%

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Pence (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Pence (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 49.4%[lower-alpha 20] 48.3% – 2.1%[lower-alpha 21]
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,031 (RV) ± 3.1% 41.3%[lower-alpha 22] 47.1% – 11.5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 48% – 5%
Ohio Northern University Apr 5–10, 2019 1,505 (A) ± 2.7% 34% 41% – 18%
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 44% 6% 9%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 32% – –

with John Kasich and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 John
Kasich (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 (RV) ± 3.5% 37% 31% 13% 19%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 20% 12% –

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio[18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Democratic Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Green Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker
Total votes

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. On March 16, Ohio governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. The governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, and thus went to court to request the delay.[19] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit.[20] Later in the day, the state's Health Director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency.[21] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2.[22] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28.[23]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[24]

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This section is transcluded from 2020 Ohio Republican primary. (edit | history)

2020 Ohio Republican primary

Democratic primary

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This section is transcluded from 2020 Ohio Democratic primary. (edit | history)
2020 Ohio Democratic primary
Candidate Votes  % Delegates
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)
Cory Booker (withdrawn)
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
Andrew Yang (write-in; withdrawn)
Total

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ↑ 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  4. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
  5. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  8. ↑ Rust Belt Rising campaigns exclusively for Democratic candidates
  9. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  10. ↑ Progress Ohio exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  11. ↑ "Other and Undecided" with 8%
  12. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  13. ↑ This poll's sponsor, the American Greatness PAC, is pro-Trump
  14. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. ↑ "Other candidates" with 6%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  17. ↑ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  18. ↑ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.
  20. ↑ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  21. ↑ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
  22. ↑ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.

References

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  9. ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
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  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

  • Elections & Voting at the Ohio Secretary of State official website
  • Ohio at Ballotpedia
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  • Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)


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