2020 United States presidential election in Texas
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 38 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Texas last voted for a Democratic candidate in 1976. Polling points to a close result in Texas in 2020, and it is seen as a swing state.
Contents
Primary elections
Republican primary
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The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were declared Republican candidates. Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford and U.S. Representative Joe Walsh dropped out. Texas Governor Greg Abbott declined to run against Trump, as did 2016 Republican primary candidate and current senator Ted Cruz.[3][4]
Results
Democratic primary
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The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[5][6][7]
Results
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General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[8] | Lean R | September 10, 2020 |
Inside Elections[9] | Tilt R | September 4, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Lean R | July 14, 2020 |
Politico[11] | Lean R | September 8, 2020 |
RCP[12] | Tossup | August 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[13] | Tossup | July 26, 2020 |
CNN[14] | Lean R | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[15] | Lean R | September 2, 2020 |
CBS News[16] | Lean R | August 16, 2020 |
270towin[17] | Lean R | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[18] | Lean R | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[19] | Lean R | August 3, 2020 |
NBC News[20] | Tossup | August 6, 2020 |
538[21] | Tilt R | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
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Aggregate polls
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
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Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
270 to Win | August 21 – September 18, 2020 | September 21, 2020 | 46.5% | 48.0% | 5.5% | Trump +1.5 |
Real Clear Politics | July 16 – September 18, 2020 | September 21, 2020 | 45.0% | 47.3% | 7.7% | Trump +2.3 |
FiveThirtyEight | until September 18, 2020 | September 21, 2020 | 46.6% | 47.4% | 6.0% | Trump +0.8 |
Average | 46.0% | 47.6% | 6.4% | Trump +1.6 |
Polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
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Siena College/NYT Upshot | Sep 16–22, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 0%[lower-alpha 3] | 9%[lower-alpha 4] |
YouGov/CBS | Sep 15–18, 2020 | 1,129 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 46% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 4% |
Morning Consult | Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 | 2,829 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 46%[lower-alpha 6] | 46% | – | – | – | – |
PPP/Giffords[upper-alpha 1] | Sep 1–2, 2020 | 743 (V) | – | 48% | 47% | – | – | – | 5% |
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News | Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2020 | 901 (LV) | ± 3.26% | 49%[lower-alpha 7] | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – |
Morning Consult | Aug 21–30, 2020 | 2,632 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 48% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[upper-alpha 2] | Aug 20–25, 2020 | 906 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 48% | 0% | – | 0%[lower-alpha 8] | 5% |
Data for Progress/Texas Youth Power Alliance | Aug 20–25, 2020 | 2,295 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | 8% |
PPP/Texas Democrats[1][upper-alpha 3] | Aug 21–22, 2020 | 764 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 48% | – | – | – | 5% |
Morning Consult | Aug 7–16, 2020 | 2,559 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 47% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
Global Strategy Group/Chrysta for Texas[upper-alpha 4] | Aug 11–13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University’s Baker Institute | Aug 4–13, 2020 | 846 (RV) | – | 48% | 41% | 1% | 1% | – | 10.2% |
– (LV)[upper-alpha 5] | 50% | 44% | 1% | 0% | – | 5% | |||
Trafalgar Group (R) | Aug 1–5, 2020 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 43% | 2% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 9] | 3% |
Morning Consult | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 | 2,576 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 10] | 5% |
Morning Consult | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 2,685 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 6] | Jul 16–20, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | – | – | – | 6% |
Quinnipiac University | Jul 16–20, 2020 | 880 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 45% | – | – | 7%[lower-alpha 11] | 4% |
YouGov/CBS | Jul 7–10, 2020 | 1,185 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | – | – | 4%[lower-alpha 12] | 6% |
Gravis Marketing/OANN | Jul 7, 2020 | 591 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler | Jun 29 – Jul 7, 2020 | 1,677 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 48% | – | – | 4% | 5% |
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | Jun 19–29, 2020 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.89% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[2] | Jun 24–25, 2020 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | 5% |
Fox News | Jun 20–23, 2020 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3% | 44% | 45% | – | – | 5%[lower-alpha 13] | 5% |
Public Policy Polling/Progress Texas[3][upper-alpha 7] | Jun 18–19, 2020 | 907 (V) | ± 3% | 48% | 46% | – | – | – | 6% |
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[upper-alpha 8] | Jun 2–3, 2020 | 683 (V) | – | 48% | 48% | – | – | – | 4% |
Quinnipiac | May 28 – Jun 1, 2020 | 1,166 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 6%[lower-alpha 14] | 7% |
Morning Consult | May 17–26, 2020 | 2,551 (LV) | – | 50%[lower-alpha 15] | 43% | – | – | – | – |
Emerson College | May 8–10, 2020 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 52%[lower-alpha 16] | 48% | – | – | – | – |
Public Policy Polling | Apr 27–28, 2020 | 1,032 (V) | – | 46% | 47% | – | – | – | 7% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler | Apr 18–27, 2020 | 1,183 (RV) | ± 2.85% | 43% | 43% | – | – | 5% | 9% |
University of Texas/Texas Tribune | Apr 10–19, 2020 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 44% | – | – | – | 7% |
AtlasIntel | Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | – | – | 11% | – |
NBC News/Marist College | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 2,409 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 1% | 5% |
CNN/SSRS | Feb 22–26, 2020 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 17] | 2% |
Univision | Feb 21–26, 2020 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 46% | – | – | – | 11% |
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler | Feb 17–26, 2020 | 1,221 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 44% | – | – | 11% | – |
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune | Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.83% | 47% | 44% | – | – | – | 10% |
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News | Jan 21–30, 2020 | 910 (LV) | ± 3.24% | 46% | 44% | – | – | 10%[lower-alpha 18] | – |
Data For Progress[upper-alpha 9] | Jan 16–21, 2020 | 1,486 (LV) | – | 54% | 40% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 19] | 3% |
Texas Lyceum | Jan 10–19, 2020 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 46% | – | – | – | 3% |
CNN/SSRS | Dec 4–9, 2019 | 1,003 (RV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 20] | 3% |
Beacon Research (R) | Nov 9–21, 2019 | 1,601 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
University of Texas at Tyler | Nov 5–14, 2019 | 1,093 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 39% | – | – | – | 16% |
University of Texas/ Texas Tribune | Oct 18–27, 2019 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 39% | – | – | 9%[lower-alpha 21] | 6% |
University of Texas at Tyler | Sep 13–15, 2019 | 1,199 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 38% | 40% | – | – | 13% | 9% |
Univision | Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 | 1,004 (RV) | – | 43% | 47% | – | – | – | 10% |
Climate Nexus | Aug 20–25, 2019 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 43% | – | – | – | 9% |
University of Texas at Tyler | Aug 1–4, 2019 | 1,261 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 37% | 41% | – | – | 14% | 8% |
Emerson | Aug 1–3, 2019 | 1,033 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
University of Texas at Tyler | Jul 24–27, 2019 | 1,414 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 37% | – | – | 12% | 14% |
Quinnipiac University | May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 | 1,159 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | – | – | 1% | 4% |
WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – | 7% |
Emerson College | Apr 25–28, 2019 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50%[lower-alpha 22] | 51% | – | – | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | Feb 20–25, 2019 | 1,222 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | – | – | 1% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 10] | Feb 13–14, 2019 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 46% | – | – | – | 5% |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Tom Steyer
Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
with Donald Trump and Julian Castro
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke
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Hypothetical polling
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with Donald Trump and Mark Cuban
with Donald Trump and a Generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and a generic Opponent
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
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Republican | Donald Trump and Mike Pence | ||||
Democratic | Joe Biden and Kamala Harris | ||||
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen | ||||
Green | Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker | ||||
Total votes |
See also
- 2020 Texas elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
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References
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Further reading
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External links
- Elections Division at the Texas Secretary of State official website
- Texas at Ballotpedia
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- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
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- 2020 United States presidential election by state
- United States presidential elections in Texas
- 2020 Texas elections
- Pages with graphs