2020 United States presidential election in Michigan
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Michigan is expected to be tightly contested in 2020, as it was the closest state by margin in the 2016 election, where President Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan's electoral votes since 1988, when George H. W. Bush won in a national landslide against Michael Dukakis.
Contents
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Princeton Electoral Consortium[3] | Safe D (flip) | September 27, 2020 |
The Cook Political Report[4] | Lean D (flip) | September 10, 2020 |
Inside Elections[5] | Lean D (flip) | September 4, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Lean D (flip) | July 14, 2020 |
Politico[7] | Lean D (flip) | September 8, 2020 |
RCP[8] | Tossup | August 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[9] | Likely D (flip) | July 26, 2020 |
CNN[10] | Lean D (flip) | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[11] | Likely D (flip) | September 2, 2020 |
CBS News[12] | Lean D (flip) | August 16, 2020 |
270towin[13] | Lean D (flip) | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[14] | Lean D (flip) | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[15] | Lean D (flip) | August 3, 2020 |
NBC News[16] | Lean D (flip) | August 6, 2020 |
538[17] | Lean D (flip) | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | September 10-22, 2020 | September 22, 2020 | 48.6% | 41.5% | 10.0% | Biden +7.2 |
Real Clear Politics | September 1-20, 2020 | September 22, 2020 | 48.7% | 42.2% | 9.1% | Biden +6.5 |
FiveThirtyEight | until September 20, 2020 | September 22, 2020 | 49.8% | 42.3% | 7.9% | Biden +7.5 |
Average | 49.0% | 42.0% | 9.0% | Biden +7.0 |
2020 polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baldwin Wallace University | Sep 9–22 | 1,001 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research Center/Wisconsin State Journal |
Sep 10–21 | 641 (LV) | – | 45%[lower-alpha 3] | 51% | - | - | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Tableau | Sep 1–21 | 1,889 (RV) | – | 43% | 53% | - | - | – | 3% |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 18–20 | 568 (LV) | – | 43% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
MRG | Sep 14–19 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 46% | - | - | 8%[lower-alpha 4] | 5% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 11–16 | 637 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 4% |
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 1] | Sep 11–15 | 517 (RV) | – | 42% | 53% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 12–14 | 930 (LV) | ± 3.21% | 39% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 0%[lower-alpha 7] | 9% |
EPIC-MRA | Sep 10–15 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 40% | 48% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 8] | 7%[lower-alpha 9] |
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP | Aug 28 – Sep 8 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Aug 29 – Sep 7 | 1,455 (LV) | ± (2%-4%) | 42%[lower-alpha 10] | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 4–6 | 876 (LV) | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | 7%[lower-alpha 11] | – |
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[1] | Sep 2–3 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 44%[lower-alpha 12] | 53% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 13] | – |
Glengariff Group | Sep 1–3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 47% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 14] | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Aug 30 – Sep 3 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 40% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 1%[lower-alpha 15] | 7% |
SurveyMonkey/Tableau | Aug 1–31 | 2,962 (RV) | – | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | 4% |
Morning Consult | Aug 21–30 | 1,424 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
PPP/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 2] | Aug 28–29 | 897 (V) | – | 44% | 48% | 3% | 1% | – | 3% |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 21–23 | 809 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Trafalgar Group | Aug 14–23 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 2.98% | 47% | 45% | 3% | - | 1%[lower-alpha 16] | 4% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | Aug 16–19 | 812 (LV) | – | 38% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 17] | 9% |
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 3] | Aug 13–17 | 631 (RV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 18] | 1% |
Morning Consult | Aug 7–16 | 1,212 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 4] | Aug 11–15 | 600 (LV) | – | 41% | 52% | - | - | – | 7% |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 7–9 | 413 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison | Jul 27 – Aug 6 | 761 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 47% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 19] | 6% |
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[upper-alpha 5] | Jul 30 – Aug 4 | 1,245 (LV) | – | 43% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
David Binder Research | Jul 30–31 | 200 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Tableau | Jul 1–31 | 3,083 (RV) | – | 47% | 50% | - | - | – | 3% |
EPIC-MRA | Jul 25–30 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 51% | 3% | - | - | 6% |
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 6] | Jul 28–29 | 876 (V) | – | 43% | 49% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 20] | 3% |
Change Research/CNBC[2] | Jul 24–26 | 413 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jul 17–26 | 1,320 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/CBS | Jul 21–24 | 1,156 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 21] | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jul 19–24 | 811 (RV) | – | 37% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 22] | 10% |
CNN/SSRS | Jul 18–24 | 927 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 52% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 23] | 2% |
Gravis Marketing[3] | Jul 22 | 754 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 51% | - | - | – | 7% |
Fox News | Jul 18–20 | 756 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 24] | 7% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 7] | Jul 13–16 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | - | - | – | 7% |
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 8] | Jul 11–16 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | - | - | – | 5% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jul 10–12 | 824 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D)[upper-alpha 9] | Jul 9–10 | 1,041 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
SurveyMonkey/Tableau | Jun 8–30 | 1,238 (RV) | – | 44% | 52% | - | - | – | 4% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 26–28 | 699 (LV)[lower-alpha 25] | – | 43% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)[upper-alpha 10] | Jun 26–27 | 1,237 (V) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 26] | 1% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Jun 17–20 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 56% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 27] | 7% |
Trafalgar Group | Jun 16–18 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 45% | 46% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 28] | 4% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Jun 8–17 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 47% | - | - | 8%[lower-alpha 29] | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jun 14–16 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.41% | 36% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 30] | 12% |
TargetPoint | Jun 11–16 | 1,000 (A) | – | 33% | 49% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 31] | 14% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12–14 | 353 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] | – | 45% | 47% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 33] | – |
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[upper-alpha 11] | Jun 9–12 | 859 (LV) | – | 38% | 51% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 34] | 7% |
Kiaer Research | May 31 – Jun 7 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 35% | 50% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 35] | 8% |
EPIC-MRA | May 31 – Jun 4 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
EPIC-MRA | May 30 – Jun 3 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 53% | - | - | – | 6%[lower-alpha 36] |
Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31 | 620 (LV)[lower-alpha 37] | – | 46% | 48% | - | - | 3% | 3% |
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 12] | May 29–30 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 44% | 50% | - | - | 4%[lower-alpha 38] | 2% |
Morning Consult | May 17–26 | 1,325 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[upper-alpha 13] | May 18–19 | 1,234 (V) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
Change Research/Crooked Media | May 11–17 | 3,070 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 47% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 39] | 11% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | May 1–5 | 600 (LV) | ± 3% | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 14] | Apr 28–29 | 1,270 (V) | – | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 15] | Apr 20–21 | 1,277 (RV) | – | 44% | 51% | - | - | – | 5% |
Fox News | Apr 18–21 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 49% | - | - | 3% | 6% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Apr 15–20 | 612 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Apr 9–11 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Hart Research/CAP Action[upper-alpha 16] | Apr 6–8 | 303 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | - | - | 4% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling | Mar 31 – Apr 1 | 1,019 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | 7% |
SPRY Strategies | Mar 30 – Apr 1 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | - | - | – | 8% |
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes | Mar 17–25 | 997 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 47% | - | - | – | 11% |
Change Research | Mar 21–23 | 510 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | - | - | 5% | |
Marketing Resource Group | Mar 16–20 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | - | - | 9%[lower-alpha 40] | 6% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Mar 12–16 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
AtlasIntel | Mar 7–9 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | - | - | 10% | – |
YouGov/Yahoo News | Mar 6–8 | 566 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 41] | 7% |
Monmouth University | Mar 5–8 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 9% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Mar 5–7 | 550 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 46% | 44% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov | Feb 11–20 | 1,249 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | Feb 12–18 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 42] | 3% |
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute | Feb 6–18 | 500 (RV) | – | 43% | 43% | - | - | – | 14% |
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[4] | Jan 9–12 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | 6% |
Glengariff Group Inc. | Jan 3–7 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | 5% |
2017–2019 polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Dec 3–5, 2019 | 551 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 8% [lower-alpha 43] | 5% [lower-alpha 44] |
Emerson College | Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 | 1,051 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 56% | – | – |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–25, 2019 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 44% | 45% | – | – |
Target Insyght | Sep 24–26, 2019 | 800 (LV) | – | 35% | 54% | – | – |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Sep 7–9, 2019 | 529 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% | – |
EPIC-MRA | Aug 17–21, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
Climate Nexus | Jul 14–17, 2019 | 820 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 49% | 5%[lower-alpha 45] | 10% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Jun 11–13, 2019 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 46% | 11% | – |
EPIC-MRA | Jun 8–12, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 52% | – | 7% |
Glengariff Group | May 28–30, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | – | 4% |
WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 42% | 45% | – | 12% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Mar 19–21, 2019 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – |
Emerson College | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Glengariff Group | Jan 24–26, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 53% | – | 5% |
EPIC-MRA | Apr 28–30, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
Zogby Analytics | Sep 2017 | 800 (V) | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling
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with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash
with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Donald Trump and Mike Pence | ||||
Democratic | Joe Biden and Kamala Harris | ||||
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen | ||||
Green | Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker | ||||
Taxpayers | Don Blankenship and William Mohr | ||||
Natural Law | Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson | ||||
Total votes |
Primary elections
The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
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2020 Michigan Republican primary
Democratic primary
Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[19]
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Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 838,555 | 52.9 | 73 |
Bernie Sanders | 576,754 | 36.4 | 52 |
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn†) | 73,175 | 4.6 | |
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) | 26,051 | 1.6 | |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 22,424 | 1.4 | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) | 10,969 | 0.7 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 9,458 | 0.6 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) | 2,381 | 0.2 | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) | 1,732 | 0.1 | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn†) | 1,533 | 0.1 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 871 | 0.1 | |
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 785 | 0.0 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 728 | 0.0 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn†) | 466 | 0.0 | |
Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 315 | 0.0 | |
Uncommitted | 19,034 | 1.2 | |
Total | 1,585,231 | 125 |
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
See also
- 2020 Michigan elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
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- Voter samples and additional candidates
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References
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Further reading
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External links
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- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
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